A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
